San Francisco, October 13, 2025 – In a sobering reminder of tech history's harsh lessons, former Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger has issued a stark warning about the artificial intelligence (AI) sector's explosive growth, likening it to the dot-com bubble and cautioning that "the AI boom won't last forever." Speaking in a recent interview, Gelsinger urged investors and tech giants to temper their enthusiasm, predicting a potential market correction even as he forecasted long-term breakthroughs by the decade's end.
Gelsinger, who stepped down from Intel's top role just weeks ago after a tumultuous tenure marked by ambitious AI chip investments and workforce cuts, drew direct parallels to the late 1990s internet mania. "We've seen this before," he told The Business of Platforms Network. "Look at all the optical companies in the early days of the internet. Everything was up and to the right… exponential growth for unlimited periods of time." He reflected that while the era delivered "a stunning 10 years" of innovation, it failed to sustain into three decades of unchecked expansion, a fate he fears could befall today's AI fervor.
The ex-CEO's comments come amid a torrent of AI-related spending, with industry estimates projecting global outlays could top $200 billion annually by 2026, fueled by hyperscalers like Microsoft, Google, Nvidia, and Amazon pouring billions into data centers, chips, and infrastructure. Market watchers, including The Kobeissi Letter, have noted AI compute demand surging at twice the pace of Moore's Law, necessitating up to $500 billion in yearly data center investments through 2030. Yet, Gelsinger and others warn of overheating: vendor financing deals and aggressive demand guarantees echo the speculative excesses that preceded the 2000 crash.
A Balanced View: Short-Term Stasis, Long-Term Promise
Despite the caution, Gelsinger isn't writing off AI's potential. He anticipates "fundamentally no change for the next two, three, four years" in the hype cycle but envisions a "real shift" by 2030, driven by advances in inference costs, performance, and power efficiency—key enablers for widespread global adoption. "Some of these transformational technologies will be at scale," he added, emphasizing a pivot from speculative bets to sustainable deployment.
His perspective aligns with a chorus of industry voices grappling with the bubble debate. OpenAI's Sam Altman, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, and Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg have similarly flagged risks of overvaluation, though some concede AI's relentless demand for advanced models could defy historical patterns. JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon and analysts at GQG Partners have invoked "dot-com-era overvaluation" in tech stocks, while Goldman Sachs counters that genuine revenue growth underpins the surge.
Gelsinger's Intel Legacy: A Cautionary Tale?
Gelsinger's ouster from Intel in late September—after less than four years at the helm—adds irony to his timely admonition. Hired in 2021 to revive the chip giant amid its lag in AI dominance, he spearheaded a $20 billion-plus push into foundry services and AI accelerators, only to face shareholder ire over slumping revenues and a 15% workforce reduction. Critics argue his warnings stem partly from Intel's stumbles against Nvidia's AI supremacy, but supporters praise his foresight in navigating semiconductor cycles.
The remarks have sparked online buzz, with tech commentators on X (formerly Twitter) amplifying Gelsinger's thread-like insights into AI's "overspending bubble." One post from Benzinga highlighted his internet analogy, garnering hundreds of views and replies debating whether AI's foundational tech warrants an exception to bubble rules.
As Wall Street digests these words, Gelsinger's call serves as a sobering check on AI's gold rush. With valuations soaring—Nvidia alone up over 150% year-to-date—the question lingers: Will the boom endure, or is a recalibration on the horizon? For now, the ex-CEO's message is clear: History rhymes, and tech titans would do well to listen.
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