Manipur Peace Deal Signed Amid Ongoing Tensions

New Delhi, September 5, 2025 — In a significant step toward restoring calm in violence-scarred Manipur, the Government of India, the Manipur state government, and representatives of the Kuki-Zo community signed a renewed Suspension of Operations (SoO) agreement on September 4, 2025. The tripartite pact, involving the Kuki National Organisation (KNO) and United People’s Front (UPF), aims to curb ethnic hostilities, secure vital infrastructure like National Highway-2, and strengthen oversight of militant groups. The agreement comes ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s speculated visit to the state on September 13, marking his first since ethnic clashes between the Meitei and Kuki communities erupted in May 2023, claiming over 260 lives and displacing more than 60,000 people. Despite the optimism, ongoing tensions, deep ethnic divides, and the complexities of neighboring Myanmar’s conflict cast a shadow over the prospects for lasting peace.

The Renewed Suspension of Operations Agreement

The SoO agreement, originally signed in 2008, was a cornerstone for reducing hostilities between Kuki-Zo armed groups and security forces. After lapsing on February 29, 2024, amid allegations of violations by Kuki groups during the 2023 ethnic violence, the renewed pact was finalized after intense negotiations in New Delhi. The agreement, effective for one year from September 4, 2025, includes revised ground rules aimed at ensuring peace and transparency. Key provisions include:

• Commitment to Non-Violence: The KNO and UPF, representing 25 Kuki-Zo insurgent groups, pledged to renounce violence, abide by India’s Constitution, and respect Manipur’s territorial integrity, addressing concerns about separatist demands.
• Security Measures: The number of designated militant camps will be reduced, with weapons relocated to Central Armed Police Force (CAPF) facilities like CRPF and BSF bases. Stringent verification of cadres will ensure no foreign nationals are included, targeting issues linked to Myanmar’s porous border.
• Highway Access: All parties agreed to keep National Highway-2 open for free movement of commuters and essential goods, a critical lifeline for the landlocked state. The Kuki-Zo Council (KZC) announced the highway’s reopening on September 4, following discussions with the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA).

The agreement was signed amid speculation of PM Modi’s visit to Manipur and Mizoram, seen as a signal of the Centre’s commitment to stabilizing the Northeast. A government release described the pact as a “landmark breakthrough” to halt hostilities and foster dialogue, with Home Minister Amit Shah emphasizing its role in “ushering in a new era of peace.”

Context of the Conflict

Manipur’s ethnic violence, which began on May 3, 2023, has been one of the state’s deadliest crises in decades. Triggered by a protest march by the All Tribal Student Union of Manipur (ATSUM) against the Meitei community’s demand for Scheduled Tribe (ST) status, the conflict spiraled into widespread clashes between the majority Meitei, who dominate the Imphal valley, and the Kuki-Zo tribes, primarily in the hill regions. The violence has claimed over 260 lives, displaced more than 60,000 people, and seen over 6,000 firearms looted from police armories, fueling militant resurgence.

The state has been effectively partitioned, with security forces patrolling buffer zones separating Meitei and Kuki-Zo areas. The Kuki-Zo demand for a separate administration, citing marginalization fears if Meiteis gain ST status, has deepened mistrust. Sporadic violence, including protests in Imphal in November 2024 and attacks on vulnerable villages, continues to destabilize the region. The conflict is further complicated by Myanmar’s civil war, with ethnic ties between Manipur’s Kuki-Zo and Myanmar’s Chin people driving arms smuggling and irregular immigration.

Political and Social Dynamics

The renewed SoO agreement follows significant political shifts in Manipur. The resignation of Chief Minister N. Biren Singh on February 9, 2025, amid internal BJP dissent and a no-confidence motion by the Congress, led to the imposition of President’s Rule on February 13, 2025. The move, after 21 months of perceived inaction by New Delhi, was seen as a belated response to the crisis. Critics, including Congress leader Jairam Ramesh, argue that the original 2008 SoO, facilitated by Congress, was undermined by the BJP’s “inconsistent stance” on peace efforts.

The agreement has sparked cautious optimism. The reopening of National Highway-2, previously blocked by Kuki-Zo protests, is a tangible outcome, easing humanitarian strains. However, Kuki-Zo leaders remain wary, with a KZC member anonymously telling DW that unrestricted movement across ethnic zones could undermine their demand for a separate administration unless justice is ensured. Social activist Janghaolun Haokip emphasized the need for “equitable resource-sharing” and neutral mediation involving Meitei, Kuki-Zo, and Naga representatives to achieve lasting peace.

Challenges to Peace

Despite the agreement, several challenges threaten its success:

• Deep Ethnic Divide: The conflict has hardened divisions, with Meitei groups opposing Kuki-Zo demands for a separate administration and Kuki-Zo communities fearing further marginalization. The International Crisis Group warned in February 2025 that failure to address root causes could deepen the divide and destabilize neighboring states.
• Militant Resurgence: The looting of over 6,000 firearms since 2023 has emboldened dormant militant groups. Allegations that SoO cadres trained village defense volunteers or participated in clashes have fueled Meitei demands to scrap the agreement, complicating trust-building.
• Myanmar’s Influence: Manipur’s proximity to Myanmar, where civil war has displaced Chin refugees and enabled arms and drug smuggling, adds complexity. Political scientist Bidhan Laishram noted that Myanmar’s conflict exacerbates Manipur’s crisis, with cross-border kinship ties fueling tensions.
• Political Instability: President’s Rule, while providing centralized control, has not fully curbed violence. The absence of a state government and ongoing political rivalries, including BJP’s internal struggles, hinder effective governance.

Public and Political Reactions

The agreement has elicited mixed responses. On X, posts from @ANI on September 4, 2025, highlighted the highway reopening and the SoO signing, with some users like @Indian_Analyzer praising it as a “step toward normalcy.” However, others, like @jeegujja, criticized the government’s delay, arguing that “ethnic violence in Manipur cannot be denied forever.”

The BJP hailed the pact as a testament to Modi’s vision for Northeast development, with Union Minister Kiren Rijiju stating, “This agreement reflects our commitment to peace and reconciliation.” Conversely, Congress MP A. Bimol Akoijam questioned whether the SoO itself has fueled conflicts, citing its failure to prevent violence since 2023. Kuki-Zo groups, while welcoming the pact, reiterated demands for a federal arrangement to address their grievances.

Broader Implications

The SoO renewal is a critical confidence-building measure, but experts caution that peace remains elusive without addressing structural issues. The International Crisis Group recommends a new peace committee with equal representation from Meitei, Kuki-Zo, and Naga communities, including women, to foster dialogue. The agreement’s focus on territorial integrity counters Kuki-Zo separatist demands, but their insistence on autonomy could stall progress.

Manipur’s crisis also has regional implications, given its strategic location near Myanmar, China, and Bangladesh. Instability risks disrupting India’s Act East Policy and Northeast development initiatives, such as the Jiribam Railway project and Imphal airport expansion. The 2023 looting of arms and the resurgence of groups like the United National Liberation Front (UNLF), despite its 2023 peace deal with a faction, underscore the need for robust disarmament.

Looking Ahead

As Manipur navigates this fragile peace process, the SoO agreement offers a pathway to de-escalation, particularly with the reopening of National Highway-2 and tighter militant oversight. However, sustaining peace requires addressing the ethnic divide, curbing arms proliferation, and mitigating external influences from Myanmar. PM Modi’s potential visit on September 13 could signal further commitment, but without inclusive mediation and equitable policies, the pact risks becoming a temporary fix. For now, Manipur’s people, weary from over two years of violence, await tangible steps toward healing and reconciliation.

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