Amaravati, Andhra Pradesh – December 10, 2025
In a blistering attack on Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu and his Telugu Desam Party (TDP)-led coalition government, YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) president Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy on Tuesday accused the administration of manipulating Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) estimates to conceal a severe fiscal crisis gripping Andhra Pradesh. Mr. Reddy's remarks, shared via a detailed post on X (formerly Twitter), come just a day after Mr. Naidu unveiled advance GSDP estimates for the first half of the 2025-26 financial year, projecting robust growth rates that the former chief minister dismissed as "cooked-up" and deceptive.
"The TDP alliance Government attempts to deceive the people into believing that the State’s economy is booming," Mr. Reddy wrote in his post, which garnered over 2,300 likes and nearly 1,000 reposts within hours. He invoked Abraham Lincoln, stating, "You can fool all the people some of the time and some of the people all the time but you cannot fool all the people all the time." The YSRCP leader urged Mr. Naidu to address pointed questions, including why the state's economy faces such fiscal stress if growth is truly flourishing, and why Andhra Pradesh's contribution to national GDP declined under the TDP's previous tenure from 2014-19.
### Discrepancies in Economic Data Highlighted
Mr. Reddy's critique hinges on data from the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) of India, which he argues provides an unalterable snapshot of the state's true financial health—unlike the government's "advance estimates" for GSDP, which he claims can be easily manipulated. According to CAG figures for the first half of FY 2025-26, the state's own tax revenues grew by a mere 7.03% year-on-year, with the aggregate of Goods and Services Tax (GST) and sales tax revenues up by just 2.85%—indicators of stagnant consumption.
Over a two-year period from 2023-24 to 2025-26, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of own tax revenues stands at a dismal 2.75%, far below the 12-15% that should accompany the government's claimed GSDP CAGR of 14.53% (based on 12.02% growth in 2024-25 and a 17.1% target for 2025-26). Capital expenditure has contracted even more sharply, shrinking at a CAGR of -16%, signaling reduced investment and infrastructure development.
The former chief minister also flagged unprecedented borrowings, with the current government securing ₹2,06,959 crore—62% of what his YSRCP administration borrowed over five years—while revenue deficits and fiscal stress escalate. He alleged rampant corruption is "plundering" state revenues, pointing to low growth in excise duties despite policy changes like increasing liquor shops and lifting time restrictions.
Accompanying his post were four infographics underscoring these claims. One chart illustrated Andhra Pradesh's share in India's GDP: averaging 4.54% under TDP rule (2014-19) versus 4.78% during YSRCP's tenure (2019-24), crediting the latter's policies for better pandemic-era management. Another table showed no improvement in the state's per-capita income rank (stuck at 18th from 2013-14 to 2018-19 under TDP), which climbed to 15th by 2023-24 under YSRCP.
### Government's Counter-Narrative and Broader Context
The TDP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government, however, paints a rosier picture. In a recent press meet, Mr. Naidu highlighted GSDP growth of 11.28% for the first half of 2025-26, surpassing the national average and attributing it to policy reforms, investor confidence, and fiscal prudence. Supporters on social media echoed this, sharing posts celebrating the "bounce back" under Mr. Naidu's leadership.
Yet, Mr. Reddy refuted such assertions, accusing the government of similar "tall claims" in the past. He cited national comparisons: While India's gross tax revenues grew at 7.33% CAGR over the same period, Andhra Pradesh's lagged behind, undermining claims of exceptional state performance. Additional "lies" called out included burdens on power consumers via Fuel and Power Purchase Cost Adjustment (FPPCA) charges totaling ₹18,272 crore, and misleading narratives on power sector liabilities and investor flight—figures he said grew slower under YSRCP (7.28% CAGR) compared to TDP's 23.88% (2014-19).
This exchange escalates a long-running feud between the two leaders, who have traded barbs over Andhra Pradesh's post-bifurcation economy since the TDP's return to power in June 2024. Mr. Reddy, who led the state from 2019-24, has repeatedly warned of a "debt trap" from heavy borrowings, a charge echoed in earlier critiques. As of now, the chief minister's office has not issued a direct response to Tuesday's salvo, though TDP spokespersons have previously dismissed YSRCP allegations as "sour grapes" from a defeated opposition.
### Implications for Andhra Pradesh's Economy
Economists note that while advance GSDP estimates can be optimistic, CAG-audited accounts offer a grounded view. The state's fiscal indicators—low revenue buoyancy, contracting capex, and rising debt (now exceeding 30% of GSDP)—raise concerns about sustainability, especially with central funds comprising a growing share of receipts. Critics like Mr. Reddy argue this masks deeper issues, including sluggish job creation and welfare scheme dilutions, potentially eroding public trust.
As Andhra Pradesh navigates these tensions, all eyes are on upcoming budget sessions and potential CAG full-year reports, which could further fuel the debate. For now, the political slugfest underscores the high stakes in one of India's fastest-growing yet fiscally challenged states.
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