Ottawa, Canada – December 31, 2025
In a stark warning that underscores the mounting pressures on Canada's immigration system, a new report projects that the country could be home to at least 1 million undocumented immigrants from India by the middle of 2026. This estimate, described as "very conservative," forms part of a broader crisis affecting up to 2 million individuals overall, as thousands of temporary work permits expire amid tightening government policies.
The projections come from Kanwar Seirah, a Mississauga-based immigration consultant, whose analysis draws on official data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC). According to Seirah, approximately 1,053,000 work permits had already expired by the end of 2025, with another 927,000 set to lapse throughout 2026. The first quarter of next year alone could see a record 315,000 expiries—up from 291,000 in the final quarter of 2025—creating what Seirah calls a "bottleneck" in an already strained system.
"It's going to get very chaotic," Seirah told the *Hindustan Times*, highlighting the unprecedented scale of the issue. "Canada has never had such high numbers of people going out of status." He noted that the figures could climb even higher when factoring in expiring study permits and denied asylum claims, many of which involve Indian nationals who arrived on temporary visas during a period of rapid immigration expansion.
### Policy Shifts Fuel the Crisis
The surge in undocumented residents stems from recent policy reversals by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's government. Over the past two years, Canada aggressively ramped up temporary immigration to fill labor shortages, welcoming hundreds of thousands of international students and workers—predominantly from India. However, facing housing shortages, overburdened public services, and a spike in asylum claims, Ottawa announced sharp cuts in November 2025.
The 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan slashes targets for non-permanent residents to 385,000 in 2026, down from previous highs, while prioritizing permanent residency pathways for just 40% of existing temporary workers. This has narrowed transition options, leaving many permit holders in limbo: they must either leave the country, secure a new visa, or risk living illegally.
"Pathways to permanent residency have shrunk dramatically," Seirah explained. "New norms to curb asylum claims are making it even harder for people to stay legally." Indian immigrants, who accounted for over 40% of temporary foreign workers in recent years, are disproportionately affected, with many in low-wage sectors like trucking, agriculture, and caregiving.
### Social Fallout in Immigrant Hubs
The human cost is already evident in immigrant-heavy regions like the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). In Brampton and Caledon—areas with large Punjabi communities—reports of makeshift encampments have surfaced. Brampton-based journalist Nitin Chopra documented a "tent city" in wooded outskirts, where out-of-status Indian workers reportedly toil for cash under exploitative conditions.
"These are people who came legally, contributed to the economy, but now face deportation or underground survival," Chopra said. Anecdotal accounts also point to a rise in "marriages of convenience," facilitated by shady operators preying on desperate migrants.
Activist groups are mobilizing in response. Bikramjit Singh of the Toronto-based Naujawan Support Network, which supports South Asian youth, announced plans for protests in early 2026. "Good enough to work, good enough to stay," reads their campaign slogan, echoing demands for amnesty or expanded regularization programs. In May 2025, Trudeau had floated pathways for undocumented migrants, but by August, the government backtracked, citing enforcement priorities.
### Broader Implications for Canada-India Ties
This unfolding crisis could strain bilateral relations between Canada and India, already tense over diplomatic expulsions in 2023 related to the killing of a Sikh separatist. Indian media outlets, including *Hindustan Times* and *NewsBytes*, have amplified Seirah's report, framing it as a "Canadian dream turned nightmare" for Punjab's youth, who form the bulk of recent migrants.
The Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) reported a record pace of removals in 2025, targeting over 15,000 Indian nationals so far, but experts doubt it can keep up with the volume. "Enforcement alone won't solve this," Seirah warned. "Without policy reform, we're looking at social unrest and economic fallout."
As Canada rings in 2026, the federal government has yet to respond directly to the report. Immigration Minister Marc Miller's office reiterated commitments to "managed migration," but advocates call for urgent action to avert a humanitarian tipping point.
This story is based on reporting from Hindustan Times and IRCC data. Additional context drawn from government announcements and expert analyses.
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