Patna, August 4, 2025 – As Bihar gears up for its Assembly elections scheduled for October-November 2025, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is intensifying its efforts to solidify its influence in one of India’s most politically significant states. With the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the BJP and its ally Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)), facing a formidable challenge from the opposition Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) and the emerging Jan Suraaj Party, the BJP’s strategies and impact are poised to play a pivotal role in determining the electoral outcome.
A Focus on Migrant Voters
The BJP has launched an ambitious outreach program targeting approximately 30 million migrant Bihari voters who temporarily return to the state during festivals like Diwali and Chhath Puja, which coincide with the election period. Recognizing the electoral weight of this demographic, the party has formed a specialized task force of 150 senior leaders and ground workers to connect with migrants across 150 key districts in 28 states, including Delhi NCR, Maharashtra, and Gujarat. This data-driven campaign tailors messaging to diverse groups, from construction workers to tech professionals, aiming to bridge the urban-rural divide and secure votes in constituencies with narrow margins. Political analysts suggest this move could significantly boost the BJP’s prospects, given the substantial migrant population’s potential to sway results in the 243-seat Assembly.
Navigating Alliance Dynamics
The BJP’s role within the NDA, alongside JD(U), Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) (LJP(R)), and smaller allies like Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM), is central to its strategy. However, tensions within the alliance, particularly with JD(U) led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, could pose challenges. The 2020 elections saw the BJP outperform JD(U), securing 74 seats compared to JD(U)’s 43, shifting the power dynamics within the coalition. Speculation about the BJP aiming to install its own Chief Minister has surfaced, especially after LJP(R) leader Chirag Paswan’s announcement to contest all 243 seats, a move that could fragment JD(U)’s vote share. Despite Paswan’s alliance with the NDA, his 2020 strategy of fielding candidates against JD(U) reduced the latter’s tally, indirectly benefiting the BJP. This complex interplay suggests the BJP is leveraging its organizational strength to maintain dominance within the coalition.
Controversies and Opposition Criticism
The BJP’s campaign has not been without controversy. The Election Commission’s Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls has sparked allegations of voter suppression, with opposition leader Tejashwi Yadav of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) claiming that the removal of even 1% of voters (approximately 7.9 lakh) could impact 35 seats. Yadav has accused the BJP of orchestrating this to disenfranchise voters in constituencies it narrowly lost in 2020. The opposition Mahagathbandhan, comprising RJD, Congress, and Left parties, has challenged the SIR in the Supreme Court, arguing it disproportionately affects marginalized and migrant voters. While the Election Commission denies these claims, the controversy has fueled anti-BJP sentiment, potentially galvanizing the opposition’s voter base.
Ideological and Policy Challenges
The BJP’s ideological alignment with the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) is intensifying grassroots efforts, with RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat’s visits signaling a renewed focus on mobilizing cadres. However, the party’s opposition to the 2023 caste census, supported by JD(U) and RJD, has created friction within the NDA, given JD(U)’s reliance on backward caste voters. The BJP’s push for Hindutva and infrastructure projects, highlighted by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s rallies in Motihari and Siwan, aims to consolidate upper-caste and urban support. Yet, its stance on issues like the Waqf Amendment Bill has alienated some Muslim voters, a key demographic for the opposition. The BJP’s ability to balance its ideological agenda with Bihar’s complex caste dynamics will be critical.
Facing New Political Entrants
The entry of Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party, contesting all 243 seats, poses a fresh challenge. Kishor’s focus on governance, employment, and moving beyond caste-based politics resonates with disillusioned voters, particularly the youth. Analysts suggest Jan Suraaj could split the anti-incumbency vote, potentially hurting the BJP more than the Mahagathbandhan, as some BJP voters may shift to Kishor’s platform. Kishor’s bold prediction that the NDA will not return to power and that JD(U) will win fewer than 25 seats underscores the threat to the BJP’s coalition.
Electoral Implications
The BJP’s organizational prowess, backed by Home Minister Amit Shah’s direct oversight and a strategy of dividing Bihar into six campaign zones, positions it as a formidable force. The party’s focus on welfare programs and infrastructure, coupled with Modi’s high-profile rallies, aims to counter anti-incumbency against Nitish Kumar’s long tenure. However, the BJP faces a fragmented electoral landscape, with the RJD’s focus on jobs and social justice, Congress’s youth outreach “
