Tehran in Turmoil: Is the IRGC Now Effectively Running Iran as Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei Remains Invisible?
Bengaluru, March 22, 2026 — As the ongoing war between Iran and a US-Israeli coalition enters its fourth week, questions about the Islamic Republic's leadership have intensified. Mojtaba Khamenei, the 56-year-old son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was officially appointed as Iran's new Supreme Leader on March 9, 2026, by the Assembly of Experts following his father's assassination in an airstrike on February 28. Yet, more than two weeks later, Mojtaba Khamenei has not appeared in public, delivered any video or audio address, or been seen in photographs that intelligence agencies can confirm as recent.
This prolonged absence has fueled speculation about his health, location, and actual authority. US and Israeli intelligence sources, including the CIA and Mossad, are actively searching for verifiable signs of the new leader's status and activities. Reports indicate that agencies monitored closely for a traditional Nowruz (Persian New Year) video message on March 20, as his father often provided, but received only a written statement read aloud on state television, accompanied by still images.
Intelligence assessments from both Israel and the United States suggest Mojtaba Khamenei is alive, though possibly wounded from the initial strikes that killed his father, mother, wife, and other family members. Officials have described the situation as "beyond weird," with no clear evidence that he is issuing orders or exercising day-to-day control. Regime insiders have attempted to schedule in-person meetings with him, which some interpret as proof of life, but his continued invisibility has deepened the mystery.
Amid this vacuum, multiple sources point to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as the de facto power broker in Tehran. The IRGC, Iran's elite military and security force, quickly pledged allegiance to Mojtaba Khamenei following his appointment and has been instrumental in orchestrating key decisions during the crisis. Reports indicate that the IRGC pressured the Assembly of Experts to select him swiftly, bypassing potential opposition. Senior Iranian sources have described the Guards as now "running the country," with real operational command falling to IRGC commanders rather than the clerical leadership.
The IRGC's dominance is not new—it has long wielded significant influence over Iran's military, economy, and proxy networks—but the current war has accelerated this shift. With much of the senior military leadership decimated early in the conflict, and ongoing strikes targeting IRGC assets, the corps has consolidated control over defense decisions, resource allocation, and responses to the invasion. Analysts note that Mojtaba Khamenei, who cultivated strong ties with the IRGC during his father's tenure, may serve more as a symbolic figurehead in this arrangement, maintaining the veneer of clerical authority while the Guards handle the war effort.
Iranian state media has released an archived video of Mojtaba Khamenei teaching religious classes (date unknown) and continues to attribute statements to him, including a Nowruz message claiming Iran's enemies are being "defeated" through national unity. However, no independent verification of his voice or current condition has emerged.
The leadership uncertainty comes at a critical juncture, with US-Israeli airstrikes continuing across Iranian provinces, severe supply shortages reported in both regular armed forces (Artesh) and IRGC units, and growing speculation about internal fractures. While no mass defections have been confirmed, the power dynamics suggest that any major decisions—military, diplomatic, or otherwise—are likely originating from IRGC command structures rather than the Supreme Leader's office.
As the conflict escalates and intelligence agencies hunt for clarity on Mojtaba Khamenei's fate, the question remains: Is Iran still governed by its traditional theocratic system, or has the IRGC effectively taken charge in the shadows of war? For now, the silence from the top speaks volumes.
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